Is This Really Mobile's Year

One of the topics for this week's show will be why so many people feel that "this is mobile's year."

To begin with, I kind of get it. As we discussed on last week's show, teens and 20s think of email as a thing of the past. Mobile texting is the way to communicate. There's no doubt that this is the platform of the future. Plus with the advent of cooler and cooler devices with more and more horsepower, the platforms are finally rising to meet the challenge of delivering the content.

But to say that "this is the year," still seems a bit premature to me.

First, there is the key word above: "Platform'S'," with a heavy emphasis on the plural.

For all that there are challenges delivering messages via email, it's still relatively standardized. It may not always display perfectly in every client and on every system, but you're relatively certain that your message at least has a chance to hit your target audience with relatively little lead time.

Mobile, however, is still highly fragmented depending on the hardware. And for all the rage about getting the latest phones, there is still a LOT of legacy equipment out there. While initiatives like Google's Android and the juggernaut that is the iPhone are hopefully easing that pain, it seems a bit ambitious to say that either platform will make enough headway to make mobile's star rise into ubiquity this year.

Second, and more importantly, the heavy users of the platform are probably the most skeptical of both advertising in general and mobile marketing in-particular.

While there will undoubtedly be some break-through campaigns in the mobile space this year, I would predict that the majority of the efforts will be the usual round of ham-fisted, first-attempts that usually flow out off agencies during the seminal stages of any emerging media. Even if a lot of work is done this year, it will do more to set back the cause of the medium than to advance it, as the primary users become increasingly disgusted by the interruptions of ill-considered promotions.

Finally, we have to follow the money. Young people are big spenders, but they are not the most profitable audience. That audience still skews a little higher. And while the 30-50 crowd are adopting the technology, they aren't completely shaped by it. Until mobile reaches these broadened segments, it really can't come into its own.

Please don't get me wrong: mobile is important and MUST be considered for promotional campaigns going forward. I simply believe that we're still at least a year off from reaching the heights being predicted in the press today.

It should be an interesting conversation this week. I know I'm looking forward to it. And I'd love to continue the conversation here. If you have a thought, please post about it.

Bob